Long on Romney
21Jan12
Lord knows I am no political forecaster. But surely there’s a better than two-thirds chance that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for President? Good time to buy his shares on InTrade?
Filed under: commerce, politics | 6 Comments
Tags: elections, intrade, mitt romney
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Good time to buy some Chris Christie and Jeb Bush shares, too.
I would say that the two-thirds chance for Romney is reasonable but within a wide margin of error. Although he’s a bland shrink-wrapped personality and has the baggage of belonging to the tax privileged aristocracy, he is currently positioned with superior money and organization. Unpredictable and arrogant Gingrich will overshadow Romney as a personality at least for a while, but there is a good chance he will commit a flash-in-the pan foot-in the-mouth type error. I think this is a your guess is as good as mine kind of situation, but Romney’s money and organization will be very valuable during the upcoming larger and non-grass roots primaries.
You know the joke that ends with the parrot saying “think of the odds we can get for Yom Kippur”? For some reason, your post made me think of that.
I am long on Obama — I think his chances are better than the 56% Intrade is showing, for a number of reasons.
Reveal the reasons, or we’ll all think you’re trying to drive up the price while you’re secretly short!
Wait, that made no sense.