No good news for Wisconsin Democrats in the first Marquette Law Poll

My colleague Charles Franklin is running a year-long project at Marquette Law School to poll the heck out of Wisconsin in what will surely be a very interesting political environment.  The first poll is out, and it can’t be making Wisconsin Democrats very happy.  Full results here.  All potential recall challengers trail the Governor, though not by much, and the public is either positive or neutral about the most visible parts of Walker’s legislative plan (higher fees for state workers, voter ID, curtailing of collective bargaining.)  Majorities think that Walker’s program will increase jobs in the state and is “better off in the long run” for Wisconsin.  Cutting funding to public schools and BadgerCare, on the other hand, is deeply unpopular, and presumably those issues will play a big role in the recall campaign.  The Governor has access to a titanic amount of money from out of state, and will make sure people here don’t miss out on hearing his point of view.  His opponents may rise in the polls as they gain statewide name recognition, but it’s hard to see in the numbers a huge “anybody but Walker” sentiment.  On top of all that, Tommy Thompson, the only really popular Republican in the state, is going to be back on the campaign trail running for Senate.

The election is a long way away, but Democrats have to be seen as starting from behind.

My guess is that they have a better chance of capturing the State Senate (though I’m told that if Van Wanggard is tossed, his Democratic replacement has less than a year before being redistricted into an election they’re almost sure to lose.)  I wonder when Marquette starts polling the senate races?

(Note:  I was surprised to see that 43% of Marquette’s sample identified as “independent” — but it turns out that 40% of all Americans now give their party ID as independent, the highest proportion Gallup has ever recorded.)

Despite the title I should include the one piece of good news for Democrats; the President remains popular here and seems at the moment to be well ahead of any potential opponent.

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One thought on “No good news for Wisconsin Democrats in the first Marquette Law Poll

  1. Richard Séguin says:

    One factor in the recall election of Walker will be the current investigation of the illegal campaign fundraising of former and current aides when he was a county executive:

    http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/crime_and_courts/new-charges-in-john-doe-investigation-allege-pattern-of-illegal/article_0d64606e-4835-11e1-b461-001871e3ce6c.html

    It has been unfolding slowly but steadily, and I think that the general public has been slow to notice until recently, especially in areas outside of the Madison-Milwaukee corridor. This could be very damaging to Walker, and I’m sure they are sweating over it. Still, that immense amount of money he is raising from wealthy donors could allow him to totally dominate the media and drown out any opponents.

    I wonder how much the upcoming recall elections are temporarily dampening the ambitions of the Republicans. Will it inhibit them from tampering drastically with the retirement system and health insurance of public employees, things that work just fine now and don’t really need fixing but which the Republicans seem to desperately want to fix anyway? Will they rush to enact changes before the recall elections fearing this could be their last chance?

    A house down the block from mine has been displaying several Recall Walker signs. While walking my dog by there yesterday, I noticed that their door had been pelted with raw eggs. Between the recall elections, the primary elections, and finally the presidential election, this could be a very tumultuous year in Wisconsin.

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