Tag Archives: tony evers

Wisconsin post-election post

A few thoughts.

  • Crazy that, once again, a statewide election in Wisconsin is decided when a county clerk, late into the night, reveals a stash of not-yet-counted ballots.
  • Evers winning and Baldwin cruising while national media darling Randy Bryce got soundly beaten by boring former UW Regent Bryan Steil in a not-that-Republican district is further evidence for the ham sandwich theory of Wisconsin politics.  Bryce ran about a point behind Tony Evers in Racine, his own home county!
  • A lot of people asking “How can there be so many Baldwin-Walker voters?  It makes no sense!”  I think it makes sense.  In a state not experiencing any visible crisis, incumbency is an advantage.  The last Marquette poll had “state on the right track / state going the wrong direction” at 55/40.  Roughly speaking, if incumbency is a 5% boost and the state’s “mood” was +5% Democratic, you’d get a Democratic incumbent winning by 10 and a Republican incumbent locked in a tie, which is pretty much what happened.  There are plenty of people whose votes aren’t strongly ideological.
  • With all the focus on the governor’s race, hardly anyone was watching the state legislative elections.  They didn’t go well for Democrats, who lost Caleb Frostman’s Senate seat and may lose seats in the Assembly too, while Democrats elsewhere were making pretty big gains in state legislatures.  Some of that, probably most of it, is our ridiculously gerrymandered Assembly map.  I’ll write more about that when I know more of the final numbers in these races.  But there’s another thing going on, too — I think Wisconsin Democrats have figured out that turnout efforts in Dane and Milwaukee are the most efficient way to turn effort into votes.  Turnout for this election was high statewide but in Dane County it was crazy; Tony Evers got more votes in the county than Hillary Clinton did in a presidential year!  And it’s not cause Dane County doesn’t love Hillary Clinton.  But that focus doesn’t shift the Assembly or Senate map.
  • In 2014, the total votes for Attorney General were 95% of the governor votes.  This time it was 99%.  I read that as:  more voters voting party-line, fewer voting only for governor and leaving the AG line blank because all they know is the party.  But maybe I’m reading too much into it.

 

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Wisconsin pre-election post

I see no reason to doubt the polls that show a very close race between Tony Evers and Scott Walker for governor, but a healthy lead for incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin over her challenger, Leah Vukmir.

In the current hyperpartisan environment, why are these two races so different?  For one thing, Baldwin and Walker are incumbents, and people in Wisconsin seem to mostly feel things are OK here (55% said the state was “on the right track” in the latest Marquette poll.)

But there’s something else.  I think in Wisconsin we like our politicians, well, not too salty.  Scott Walker is a bland guy.  He famously eats two ham sandwiches in a paper bag for lunch every day, and the thing is, I don’t think that’s an affectation, Walker really is a guy who doesn’t mind eating the same thing for lunch every day.  Tony Evers is bland, too, and he fought off seven spicier opponents in a wild primary, winning just about every county in the state.  When Tammy Baldwin announced for Senate people thought there was no way a movement liberal and out lesbian from Madison could win a statewide race.  She won it easily.  Because she is is a movement liberal out lesbian from Madison who in every way comes off as the super-nice mom at the PTA meeting who you go ahead and let make all the decisions because it kind of seems like she’s got this.

Leah Vukmir, by contrast, is a cookie-cutter Fox News Republican who wants to bring a meaner, harder-edged style to Wisconsin politics.  I don’t think it’s gonna work.  I think Wisconsinites, both Democrats and Republicans, prefer the ham sandwich in the paper bag.

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